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Location: Massachusetts, United States

My "I" is constantly changing (perhaps this is merely AD/HD): overdetermined nexus of cultural forces emanating from several continents: skeptical of all Truths and seeker of the truth: iconoclast by enculturation, brain chemistry, and, perhaps, choice: perpetually perplexed, particularly about why we exist/ as the manifestation of overdetermined forces whose existence (and nature) is not as solid (or simplistic) as we would like.

Friday, October 21, 2005

What is Google (GOOG) Worth?

This is a very good company in a fast moving, rapidly changing and, therefore, highly risky sector. Assuming it can sustain rapid growth for the short term, then it is worth a lot of money per share, but how much? Is it worth its current price of about $350 per share? Is it worth the $450 that Lehmann has indicated? Or is it, as a discounted cash flow approach would indicate, worth somewhere between $200-$250? And this latter estimate assumes that Google has no more risk than Microsoft. If the risk is higher than Microsoft, then Google shares should trade in a much lower range. In any event, this is an overvalued stock, but not necessarily a bubble. As indicated in an earlier post (and thanks to Dale for pointing this out), Baidu is a real bubble stock of the present. Still, anyone paying current prices for Google are running a high risk of losing their money, even if the company continues to rock. Perhaps these investors have simply forgotten that these prices depend critically upon a long term future of positive cash flow growth stretching far beyond their own lifetimes and into a future in which technological change can hardly be predicted, but seems likely to create some serious challenges for companies like Google (and Microsoft, for that matter).